Is 2023 a bear market or bull market?
The S&P 500's feverish late-year rally has brought the index to its highest closing level of 2023, leaving it just 4.2% away from the all-time peak reached in January 2022. A close above 4,796.56 on the S&P 500 would confirm that the index has been in a bull market since bottoming out on Oct.
More than 60% of respondents believe the stock market's gain this year has just been a bear market bounce, seeing more trouble ahead. A total of 39% of investors believe we are already in a new bull market. The S&P 500 has fallen more than 5% this month alone, cutting its 2023 gains to 11%.
The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official. The onset of a new bull market has historically been a very reliable stock market indicator.
The current bull market started in October 2022, when the S&P 500 reached its most recent low. Since then, the index has swelled about 35 percent.
November 2023 Market Summary
Stocks recorded a highly bullish November as the S&P 500 advanced 9.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average charged 9.2% higher, and the NASDAQ surged 10.8%.
It's OK to be a stock market bull on Wall Street again. After 2022 marked the worst year for markets since the Great Financial Crisis, consensus expectations for a recession in 2023 had many investors worried going into this year.
In other words, in all but seven corrections in a 73-year time span, a stock market decline has taken longer than 10 months to reach its bottom. As of the closing bell on Jan. 4, 2023, the S&P 500 had spent 282 calendar days in a bear market, per Yardeni.
The duration of bear markets can vary, but on average, they last approximately 289 days, equivalent to around nine and a half months. It's important to note that there's no way to predict the timing of a bear market with complete certainty, and history shows that the average bear market length can vary significantly.
"Some traders predict a flat or down market in the first half of 2024 due to high inflation, recession fears and rate hikes from the Fed. However, others foresee a bull market continuing, citing potential Fed rate cuts, earnings growth and historical trends around election years."
While it's unclear whether prices will continue soaring, many people are hopeful that we're in the early stages of a new bull market. If that's the case, 2024 could be a great year for the stock market. But some investors are also worried that this is only a temporary rally before another downturn hits.
Are we in bull market now?
But the early days of 2024 swept away this uncertainty as the S&P 500 reached its highest level ever, signaling we've been in bull territory for quite a while -- since the index started rebounding from its bear market low in late 2022.
Key Takeaways. While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term. Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss.
One thing to keep in mind during bear markets is that you aren't going to invest at the bottom. Buy stocks because you want to own the business for the long term, even if the share price goes down a little more after you buy.
Good Tidings
Let's review the good times of late 2023. The S&P 500, which tracks the most valuable stocks in the U.S. market, rose 11.2 percent in the last quarter — and had a total return of 11.7 percent, including dividends. For the year, it gained 24.2 percent and returned 26.3 percent, including dividends.
The bear market has faded, the S&P 500 gained more in percentages in 2023 than it shed in 2022 -- and so far, the economy has avoided a recession. Let's put that all together to see what it could mean for 2024.
The benchmark S&P 500 index inched lower Friday, the last trading day of 2023, but ended the year with a 24.2% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 13% this year, and the Nasdaq soared 43%, driven by gains in big technology companies, including Nvidia, Amazon and Microsoft.
U.S. indexes: For 2023, the S&P jumped 24.23%, the Dow gained 13.8% and the Nasdaq rocketed 43.42%. Bitcoin: Shrugging off the high-profile criminal cases against FTX and Binance, bitcoin surged around 152%.
- Consumer staples. ...
- Precious metals. ...
- Healthcare.
Key Stats: 2023 Stock and Bond Market Performance
U.S. Stocks rose 26.4% (including dividends), the biggest rally in the US Market Index since 2019. Stocks were up 12.1% in the fourth quarter, the index's best quarterly performance since late 2020.
As we reach the midpoint of 2023, there are signs that the bearish trend in the stock market might be coming to an end. However, considering the Federal Reserve's cautionary statements about future interest rate hikes, uncertainty will remain, ensuring volatility.
Where is the stock market headed in 2024?
As a whole, analysts are optimistic about the outlook for stock prices in 2024. The consensus analyst price target for the S&P 500 is 5,090, suggesting roughly 8.5% upside from current levels.
Jan 19 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 (. SPX) , opens new tab confirmed on Friday that it has been in a bull market since October 2022, as it notched a record high close for the first time in two years.
The average length of a bear market is 289 days, or about 9.6 months. That's significantly shorter than the average length of a bull market, which is 965 days or 2.6 years. dot-com crash in March 2000 is technically the longest (a drop of 19.9% in 1990 nearly derailed that bull, but just missed the bear threshold).
The longest bull market started in March 2009, near the end of the Great Recession, and roamed Wall Street for almost 11 years.
It defines a bear market as a decline of at least 20% in the S&P 500 from its previous peak. It ends when the index reaches its low before then going on to set a new high. S&P uses closing prices for its calculations. Bull markets in both stocks and bonds are far more common than bear markets.
