Are we back in a bull market?
The current bull market started in October 2022, when the S&P 500 reached its most recent low. Since then, the index has swelled about 35 percent.
The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official. The onset of a new bull market has historically been a very reliable stock market indicator.
Recent economic data "validates our theory that 2024 will be the year of rate cuts, and that's very bullish for stocks," he says. A decline in rates worldwide should spell a good year for markets and less of a possibility of a recession, he says.
"Some traders predict a flat or down market in the first half of 2024 due to high inflation, recession fears and rate hikes from the Fed. However, others foresee a bull market continuing, citing potential Fed rate cuts, earnings growth and historical trends around election years."
That additional milestone adds more substance to the idea that the market has shifted to a new growth phase. Therefore, the bull market technically started back in October 2022. Investors avoiding the market would have missed a tremendous rally from the lows.
Key Takeaways. The U.S. equity market's rally at the end of 2023 has left stocks overvalued, with little room for error. Analysts' estimates for 2024 corporate earnings may be too optimistic, given a likely tapering in U.S. economic growth. Markets may also be overestimating the number of Fed rate cuts in 2024.
As a whole, analysts are optimistic about the outlook for stock prices in 2024. The consensus analyst price target for the S&P 500 is 5,090, suggesting roughly 8.5% upside from current levels.
Good Omens for the S&P 500
The S&P 500's current rally bodes well for the month of February and for the rest of 2024. “The S&P 500 has set six new all-time highs in 2024, all in January. That works out to an annualized rate of 72 new highs,” says Sam Stovall, Chief Investment Strategist of CFRA Research.
Key Takeaways: Growth stocks may see a robust 2024 on the strength of trends such as AI disruption and decarbonization. Small-cap stocks are trading at attractive valuations as analysts see the possibility of a rebound in 2024. The time could be right for locking in rates on long-term, high-yield bonds.
Key Takeaways. Potential economic obstacles in 2024 could delay the start of a sustained bull market, but investors can still find opportunities.
What will the stock market be like in 2025?
Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Higgins said. Based on current levels, the stock market would have to surge about 30% to reach Higgins's 2025 year-end price target.
Highlights: Nominal median U.S. equity market return of 4.2% to 6.2% during the next decade; 4.8%–5.8% median expected return for U.S. fixed income (as of Sept. 30, 2023). Vanguard's latest U.S. equity market return forecast is a touch below where it was a year ago. (The firm presents its forecasts in a range.)
![Are we back in a bull market? (2024)](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/DE57s9iN9PE/hq720.jpg?sqp=-oaymwEcCNAFEJQDSFXyq4qpAw4IARUAAIhCGAFwAcABBg==&rs=AOn4CLBkgWLJ8PsxOwotLHdhX4y_vv6Ppw)
3. How long the average bull market lasts. As much as investors would like the answer to this question to be "forever," bull markets tend to run for just under four years. The average bull market duration, since 1932, is 3.8 years, according to market research firm InvesTech Research.
S&P 500 eclipses 5,000 for the first time—but you'd be smart to ignore the headlines, says CFP. The S&P 500 index closed above 5,000 for the first time on Friday, with investors showing continued optimism about cooling inflation, strong earnings and a resilient economy.
A bear market is a period when the S&P 500 pulls back 20% or more from its last all-time high. There have been 12 bull markets since the S&P 500 launched back in 1957, meaning a new one has started roughly once every 5.5 years.
Cyclical sectors like financials (namely banks), leap out as attractive. Among economically sensitive sectors, communication services remain appealing. Among defensive sectors, healthcare and utilities could offer a ballast with upside potential.
Insist on high-quality stocks in 2024
One way to counter risk is to emphasize high-quality stocks, such as those with strong balance sheets, consistent earnings growth, strong free cash flow and either low debt or the ability to cover interest payments comfortably.
We picked 10 stocks which analysts are specifically recommending investors in 2024 because of election-related catalysts. Some top names include JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) and Pfizer Inc (NYSE:PFE).
Key Takeaways. While holding or moving to cash might feel good mentally and help avoid short-term stock market volatility, it is unlikely to be wise over the long term. Once you cash out a stock that's dropped in price, you move from a paper loss to an actual loss.
Mostly it is advised to stay with a stock for a long period of time or for a long term, but if you are turning out to sell or exit that stock you must have a strong reason to do so. The ultimate goal of investing in a stock is to see profits and exiting without that might not be the best thing to do.
What are the bullish stocks in 2024?
- A note on earnings trades. ...
- Top 10 stocks to watch in March 2024.
- Target (TGT) ...
- Nordstrom (JWN) ...
- JD.com (JD) ...
- Marvell Technology (MRVL) ...
- DocuSign (DOCU) ...
- Gap (GPS)
Stock | Forward price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) |
---|---|
Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) | 40.0 |
CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD) | 73.8 |
Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) | 25.3 |
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) | 30.0 |
- The "Magnificent Seven" stocks have been top investments over the years. ...
- They are all household names: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), and Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Period (start-of-year to end-of-2023) | Average annual S&P 500 return |
---|---|
5 years (2019-2023) | 15.36% |
10 years (2014-2023) | 11.02% |
15 years (2009-2023) | 12.63% |
20 years (2004-2023) | 9.00% |
- High-End Artwork (Masterworks) Bucket: Risk. ...
- Private Credit. Bucket: Growth. ...
- High-Yield Savings Account. Bucket: Safety. ...
- Real Estate. Bucket: Growth. ...
- Stocks and ETFs. Bucket: Growth. ...
- Betterment. Bucket: Growth. ...
- Pay off High-Interest Debt. Bucket: n/a. ...
- Series I-Bonds. Bucket: Safety.