What is the future of bond market?
As interest-rate hikes end, high-quality fixed income could climb in 2024.
Despite Treasuries' recent rally, yields remain very compelling, with the US 10-year Treasury now yielding 3.9%. For bond investors, these conditions are nearly ideal. After all, most of a bond's return over time comes from its yield. And falling yields—which we expect in the latter half of 2024—boost bond prices.
High-quality bond investments remain attractive. With yields on investment-grade-rated1 bonds still near 15-year highs,2 we believe investors should continue to consider intermediate- and longer-term bonds to lock in those high yields.
We expect bond yields to decline in line with falling inflation and slower economic growth, but uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's policy moves will likely be a source of volatility. Nonetheless, we are optimistic that fixed income will deliver positive returns in 2024.
I bonds issued from Nov. 1, 2023, to April 30, 2024, have a composite rate of 5.27%. That includes a 1.30% fixed rate and a 1.97% inflation rate. Because I bonds are fully backed by the U.S. government, they are considered a relatively safe investment.
Strong demand should support bonds in 2024
Many who left the bond market when yields were rising should return to lock in today's higher yields. The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index currently has a yield of around 4.6%.
Bond outlooks improve, but stocks' prospects drop on the heels of 2023′s rally. Better things lie ahead for bonds, but the prospects for stocks, especially U.S. equities, are less rosy.
Unless you are set on holding your bonds until maturity despite the upcoming availability of more lucrative options, a looming interest rate hike should be a clear sell signal.
Including bonds in your investment mix makes sense even when interest rates may be rising. Bonds' interest component, a key aspect of total return, can help cushion price declines resulting from increasing interest rates.
Why rising interest rates pushed bond prices down, too. Bond interest rates are usually set upon purchasing a bond. When rates rise, new bonds with higher rates are issued and become more desirable than bonds with lower rates. As a result, the value of the bonds people already own with lower rates will fall.
Can you lose money on bonds if held to maturity?
If sold prior to maturity, market price may be higher or lower than what you paid for the bond, leading to a capital gain or loss. If bought and held to maturity investor is not affected by market risk.
When the bond market crashes, bond prices plummet quickly, just as stock prices fall dramatically during a stock market crash. Bond market crashes are often triggered by rising interest rates. Bonds are loans from investors to the bond issuer in exchange for interest earned.
Bond prices have an inverse relationship with interest rates. This means that when interest rates go up, bond prices go down and when interest rates go down, bond prices go up.
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 20-Year Value (Purchased May 2000) |
|---|---|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $109.52 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $219.04 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $547.60 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $1,095.20 |
The actual rate of interest for an I bond is calculated from the fixed rate and the inflation rate. The combined rate changes every 6 months. It can go up or down. I bonds protect you from inflation because when inflation increases, the combined rate increases.
The initial yield is only good for the first six months you own the bond. After that, the investment acts like any other variable vehicle, meaning rates could go down and you have no control over it. And if you wait until, say, 2025 to buy an I bond, the initial rate could be well below current levels.
| ETF | Expense ratio | Yield to maturity |
|---|---|---|
| iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) | 0.49% | 7.6% |
| Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF (VMBS) | 0.04% | 4.6% |
| JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF (JPST) | 0.18% | 5.4% |
| SPDR Portfolio Short Term Treasury ETF (SPTS) | 0.03% | 4.5% |
Bond Index Return – Between 2.52% and 11.85%
The bond market may be accessed in index form, with individual investments reflecting the value of a variety of assets. Among bond indexes include: S&P 500 Bond Index: 10-year running average of 2.52% Vanguard bond market index fund: 10-year average of 9.06%
Money market account rates are expected to drop in 2024, similar to savings and CD rates.
Stock Market Predictions 2024
Brokerages like Goldman Sachs have lifted their 2024 predictions for U.S. stocks. but the median target for the S&P 500 is only 5,068 according to FactSet. This implies annual gains of just over 6% - which, for context, is below the 10% that the S&P 500 has averaged over the long term.
What is better CD or bonds?
CDs are usually best for investors looking for a safe, shorter-term investment. Bonds are typically longer, higher-risk investments that deliver greater returns and a predictable income.
There are advantages to purchasing bonds after interest rates have risen. Along with generating a larger income stream, such bonds may be subject to less interest rate risk, as there may be a reduced chance of rates moving significantly higher from current levels.
Inflation is a bond's worst enemy. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of a bond's future cash flows. Typically, bonds are fixed-rate investments. If inflation is increasing (or rising prices), the return on a bond is reduced in real terms, meaning adjusted for inflation.
Impact of Inflation on Fixed Income Investments
Bond prices are inversely rated to interest rates. Inflation causes interest rates to rise, leading to a decrease in value of existing bonds. During times of high inflation, bonds yielding fixed interest rates tend to be less attractive.
Given the numerous reasons a company's business can decline, stocks are typically riskier than bonds. However, with that higher risk can come higher returns.
